Which current F1 drivers should switch teams based on historical patterns?

For Aston Martin, I already mentioned the Verstappen situation. Alonso could retire in 2026, and have Verstappen join. Stroll is not going anywhere as long as his father is there or he gets bored. Honda might push to change things though and try to bring Tsunoda to the team, but I highly doubt it. With Newey in the team, many drivers could be looking to join the team for 2027.

Kick Sauber: Hulkenberg-Bortoleto

RB: Tsunoda-Hadjar

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For example, we know that Lawson and Hadjar are under the microscope. They must perform, or they can be dropped quite quick. Specially Lawson. Tsunoda is known to have run down the Red Bull life, and he will be departing RB at the end of 2025. Antonelli will also be under the microscope, since he is really young and he did not really show the speed he was expected to have in F2. Having skipped F3 and Prema not being the team they used to be with the new regulations and cars could have played a big part in it, but…

Alpine: Gasly-Doohan

That could unlock a chain of moves, as did Hamilton’s move to Ferrari this year. If Max goes to AM, Red Bull will be looking for a new star driver. They have shown interest in Norris before, but I doubt Norris would be joining Red Bull. What I do think is that perhaps Red Bull could target Piastri. Mclaren has 2 top drivers, and both will want to be champions. That could create friction, making one of them eager to listen to offers. Norris is the wonderkid of Mclaren, so Piastri could be the one leaving to another team, such as Red Bull.

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Ferrari: Leclerc-Hamilton

So, who could change teams? Verstappen could be one of them. Red Bull are changing to Ford power units from 2026 on. Ford is not really known in modern F1 to have any race wins or titles, and American engine suppliers are not really into F1 kind of motorsports, so the uncertainty is there. We have the fact that Lawrence Stroll is looking for his star driver to close his Aston Martin project. He got Honda, he got Newey, he got new top notch installations at the factory, and now he needs a star driver. Alonso is out of F1 life due to age, and Lance is there just because he is the son. Drugovich deserves that seat way too much… But we know Lance won’t be seated out unless he wants to. So what is likely to happen is that Verstappen could be lured to join in 2027. Either that, or he could retire and enjoy the millions he earned during these years and his new born baby.

For Audi, most likely they will look for experienced drivers that will help the team forward, but also mix it with youth, like they just did with Hulkenberg and Bortoleto. I think this duo will remain for some years. And same thing for Haas. Ocon is a quick driver, but looks like he is kind of buying his time in F1 for now. Might have something to do with his attitude in and off track, but top teams seem to have X’d him.

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Considering that the line ups are as below, let’s see what would historical patterns say:

Haas: Ocon-Bearman

Mercedes: Russell-Antonelli

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If Piastri leaves, Bortoleto would more than likely be brought to Mclaren. Then we have Ferrari. If Hamilton does not perform, he might be there till 2026, when Bearman could be ascended to Ferrari if he performs. Like I said, Leclerc will not be leaving Ferrari.

Williams could keep Albon, as it does not look like top teams are interested in him. The only thing that could see that change would be him beating Sainz jr consistently. That could change Albon’s career again and bring him back to a top team. But I believe everyone will predict Sainz jr clearly coming on top, and perhaps hope to have another chance in a top team. So if Sainz jr leaves, most likely Williams will take Colapinto back.

Mclaren: Norris-Piastri

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Williams: Albon-Sainz jr

Red Bull: Verstappen-Lawson

Aston Martin: Alonso-Stroll

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Historically speaking, top drivers usually end up in top teams. And once they are comfortable and with a fast car, it is unlikely for a move to happen. And for that move to happen, there has to be a project with proper funding and attractive enough for the driver to consider a change.

Then we have Mercedes. There has been a lot of talks about Verstappen moving to Mercedes. But there is a big question mark there. Why? Because while Mercedes has shown they can do dominating cars, they have also shown lack of reaction capability since 2022. They have been unable to understand the rules and create a stable car. They are there some weekends, but in others they are far off the pace. And Max will not like that. He will want a team that can react quickly and give him what he needs to win. So most likely Russell will remain in the team, with Antonelli alongside him if he performs as he is expected to.

So considering Mclaren, Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes are supposed to stay where they are, I would consider that Norris will stay at Mclaren, Leclerc will stay at Ferrari for example. For the rest of not top teams, I would say Gasly will stay at Alpine for some years, and Ocon will stay at Haas too. The rest of drivers could be moving.

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For Alpine, as Briatore said, first they need to fix the car and then focus on drivers. If what he forecasted becomes reality and they become podium and victory contenders, then most likely they will for a strong driver. In that case, I believe Sainz jr could be a driver to go there from Williams. We all know Williams is a transition team for Sainz jr, not secrets there. The reasonn why Sainz jr did not join Alpine for 2025 is because at the times of the negotiations the car was not there. But as we have seen at the end of the season with Gasly, the car can be quick. So perhaps in 2026 or 2027 Sainz jr could be the “top” driver Alpine would be looking for. I believe Doohan will not last long in Alpine, and Colapinto might not be the driver either.